White Papers

Sequence or Returns Risk

This first installment in our whitepaper series introduces the foundational challenge facing mature pension plans: negative cash flow. When benefit payments regularly surpass incoming contributions, trustees encounter a structural issue that may affect a plan’s funded status. This paper explores the mechanics of sequence of returns risk – a phenomenon where poor investment performance early in the decumulation phase can trigger forced asset sales at depressed prices, compounding losses and accelerating funding deterioration. Understanding this risk is essential for trustees seeking to preserve capital and fulfill their fiduciary duty in an increasingly volatile market environment.

This paper will focus on describing the problem and explaining why it must be managed. Future papers will discuss risk management and governance planning alternatives.

Here’s the paper: Sequence or Return Risks

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